Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
Chair of Statistics and Econometrics
Curriculum vitae
Jonas Dovern studied Econometrics at Maastricht University between 2001 and 2005. Subsequently he followed the Advanced Study Program in International Economic Policy Research at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy until 2006. He was also a research associate in the research area „Macroeconomic Policy under Market Imperfections“ and in the Forecasting Center at the Kiel Institute between 2005 and 2008. He obtained his doctoral degree from the University of Kiel in 2009. In 2009 he founded Kiel Economics, a private consulting firm for macroeconomic expert reports and statistical forecast models, and served as managing director until 2013. During this time he was also an adviser to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and the Kiel Institute. In 2013 he became Assistent Professor of Macroeconomics at Heidelberg University where he served until 2019. In 2016 he served eight months as an Interim Professor of Economics at RWTH Aachen University and in 2018 he spent one month at LMU Munich as a visiting researcher.
Since April 2019 Jonas Dovern has been Chair of Statistics and Econometrics at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg. He is also a member of the CESifo Research Network.
Jonas Dovern’s main fields of research are time series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics. He is in particular interested in the statistical analysis of heterogeneity in macroeconomic expectations and in econometric methods for evaluating time series forecasts.
2025
- , , :
Mind the Naive Forecast! A Rigorous Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Time Series with Low Predictability
In: Applied Intelligence 55 (2025), Article No.: 395
ISSN: 0924-669X
DOI: 10.1007/s10489-025-06268-w
2024
- :
Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households
In: International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024), p. 113-123
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002 - , , :
Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: a Compositional Data Approach
In: Journal of Applied Econometrics 39 (2024), p. 1104-1122
ISSN: 0883-7252
DOI: 10.1002/jae.3080
2023
- , , :
Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news
In: European Economic Review 154 (2023), p. 104440
ISSN: 0014-2921
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440 - , , , , :
Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany
In: Energy Economics 126 (2023), p. 106948
ISSN: 0140-9883
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106948 - , , :
Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates
In: Journal of Monetary Economics 138 (2023), p. 1-13
ISSN: 0304-3932
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005
2022
- , , , :
Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic
In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 195 (2022), p. 186 - 198
ISSN: 0167-2681
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.011
2020
- , , :
Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News
(2020)
(Working Paper) - , , , :
Zur Reaktion von Unternehmen auf die Coronakrise: Welche Rolle spielen die erwartete Krisendauer und die Geschäftslage vor der Krise?
In: Ifo-Schnelldienst (2020)
ISSN: 0018-974X
URL: https://www.ifo.de/publikationen/2020/aufsatz-zeitschrift/zur-reaktion-von-unternehmen-auf-die-coronakrise-welche
(online publication) - , , , :
Firm-Level Expectations and Behavior in Response to the Covid-19 Crisis
(2020), Article No.: 8304
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3603773
URL: https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2020/working-paper/firm-level-expectations-and-behavior-response-covid-19-crisis
(Working Paper) - , :
Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area
In: International Journal of Central Banking 64 (2020), p. 309 - 347
ISSN: 1815-4654
Open Access: https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb20q4a8.pdf
URL: https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb20q4a8.htm - , :
Order-Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts
In: Journal of Applied Econometrics 35 (2020), p. 440-456
ISSN: 0883-7252
DOI: 10.1002/jae.2755 - , , :
How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-Scale Business Survey
(2020), p. 30
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3564860
URL: https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2020/working-paper/how-do-firms-form-expectations-aggregate-growth-new-evidence-large
(Working Paper) - , :
How Economic Crises Damage Potential Output – Evidence from the Great Recession
In: Journal of Macroeconomics 65 (2020), Article No.: 103239
ISSN: 0164-0704
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0164070420301658 - , :
Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects
In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics 122 (2020), p. 1431-1466
ISSN: 0347-0520
DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12385
URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/sjoe.12385
2017
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Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios
In: Empirical Economics 53 (2017), p. 63-77
ISSN: 0377-7332
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x
URL: http://rdcu.be/jSoD - , :
Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
In: International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017), p. 760-769
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207017300353 - , :
The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?
(2017), Article No.: 1999
URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1999.en.pdf
(Working Paper)
2016
- , , :
Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR
In: Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 70 (2016), p. 86-100
ISSN: 0165-1889
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.006
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188916301051 - , , , , , :
Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union
In: Earth's Future 4 (2016), p. 252-267
ISSN: 2328-4277
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000353
URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000353/full - , , :
Beyond fisheries: Common-pool resource problems in oceanic resources and services
In: Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 40 (2016), p. 37-49
ISSN: 0959-3780
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.013
URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300875
Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
- Phone number: +499115302-95492
- Email: jonas.dovern@fau.de